Former Lubbock County Republican Party Chairman Cole Shooter viewed the May 2026 primary runoffs as tests of incumbency, party loyalty and the changing identity of the Texas GOP.

Shooter, who led the county party from 2020 through 2024, offered his analysis after the March primary sent several statewide and local contests to runoffs. He did not endorse or predict winners in every race, but he identified the Republican U.S. Senate contest and two Lubbock County commissioner races as particularly revealing.

The May 26 results ultimately favored Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race and produced decisive victories for Kevin Pounds and Jordan Rackler in the two county commissioner contests.

Cornyn’s longevity versus Paxton’s controversies

The most closely watched statewide runoff placed four-term U.S. Sen. John Cornyn against Paxton.

Shooter described both candidates as carrying political liabilities, although of different kinds.

Paxton entered the race after years of legal and personal controversy, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House. The Texas Senate acquitted him on all articles considered at trial. Paxton has also faced whistleblower litigation involving former employees and public scrutiny related to his marriage.

Cornyn’s principal problem, Shooter argued, was his longevity. First elected to the Senate in 2002, Cornyn had appeared on Texas ballots for more than two decades and had developed a reputation among some Republican primary voters as part of the party’s older establishment.

Shooter said those voters increasingly associated Cornyn with the Republican politics of the George W. Bush era—an identity that once helped candidates in Texas but became a disadvantage among voters seeking a more confrontational, Donald Trump-aligned party.

Those observations were political analysis rather than factual conclusions about either candidate’s fitness for office. They were originally reported in Lubbock Lights’ preview of the runoff races.

Paxton went on to defeat Cornyn with approximately 64% of the statewide Republican runoff vote. His margin in Lubbock County was smaller but still decisive: Paxton received about 61% locally, compared with 39% for Cornyn.

The victory made Cornyn the first Republican U.S. senator from Texas to lose renomination. Paxton will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in November, according to Associated Press coverage of the result.

Precinct 4 rematch produced a different margin

Shooter also highlighted the Republican runoff for Lubbock County commissioner in Precinct 4. The race was a rematch between incumbent Jordan Rackler and former commissioner Chad Seay.

Their first contest in 2022 was extremely close. Shooter recalled that, while serving as county chairman, he had to wait for outstanding mail ballots before the party could be confident about the result.

The 2026 race began differently. Rackler received approximately 47.5% in the three-candidate March primary, narrowly missing the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Seay finished second with about 40%, while former Constable C.J. Peterson was eliminated.

Rackler then expanded his advantage in May, winning the runoff with about 62.6% of the vote. Seay received approximately 37.4%.

Because no Democrat filed for the Precinct 4 seat, Rackler’s primary victory left him without a major-party opponent in November.

Pounds wins Precinct 2 nomination

The open Precinct 2 commissioner race also required a runoff.

Kevin Pounds led the March primary with approximately 39.5%, followed by political consultant M. Trey Newton at about 31%. Justin Martin finished narrowly behind Newton and was eliminated.

Pounds, a firefighter who emphasized funding for volunteer fire departments, road maintenance and county facilities during the campaign, consolidated support in the runoff. He defeated Newton with approximately 60% of the vote.

Like the Precinct 4 winner, Pounds has no Democratic opponent listed for the November general election, making the Republican runoff the decisive contest for the seat.

The local results were reported by KTTZ and the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal.

Justice of the peace contest remained close

Shooter declined to predict the outcome of the Republican runoff for Precinct 3 justice of the peace. He described both finalists—Mary Hernandez and Traci Baxa—as strong candidates and expected a competitive race.

Hernandez led the three-candidate March primary with about 37%, followed by Baxa with approximately 32%. Incumbent Frank Gutierrez finished third.

Baxa won the May runoff with roughly 53.3% of the vote, while Hernandez received about 46.7%. Baxa is scheduled to face Democratic nominee Marina Garcia in November.

The county clerk contest initially appeared headed to a runoff as well, but Jim Baxa withdrew. That left Sandy Garcia as the Republican nominee without a second round of voting.

On the Democratic side, Margaret Ceja declined to participate in a runoff for county party chair. Gracie Gomez subsequently became chair without a runoff election.

Broader results were not uniform

Lubbock County voters did not always support the candidates who prevailed statewide.

Local Republicans favored incumbent Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright and Court of Criminal Appeals candidate Alison Fox. Statewide, however, Bo French narrowly defeated Wright, while Thomas Smith defeated Fox.

Lubbock County’s preference did align with the statewide result in the attorney general runoff. County voters supported Mayes Middleton over Chip Roy, and Middleton won the Republican nomination statewide.

Taken together, the results supported part of Shooter’s pre-runoff assessment: Republican voters were willing to reject a longtime incumbent such as Cornyn, but incumbency was not universally damaging. Rackler won comfortably in Lubbock County, while Railroad Commissioner Wright lost by a narrow statewide margin.

The outcomes reflected separate candidate histories and local conditions rather than a single rule governing Republican runoff voters.